Massive Anti-Incumbency Wave in Bihar: 70% Blame Nitish for State’s Decline, 87% Support RJD

Townhall Times A new pre-election survey conducted across Bihar has revealed an overwhelming mood of anger and frustration against the ruling alliance led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). According to the Jan Vichar Survey Group, which interviewed 20,000 respondents across urban and rural Bihar between September 15 and September 30, nearly 70% of voters believe Nitish Kumar has “ruined Bihar” rather than developed it.

BJP Faces Strong Backlash Over Broken Promises

The survey findings indicate a sharp decline in public trust toward the BJP.

74% of respondents called BJP “the most deceptive political party,” accusing it of breaking promises in Delhi, Maharashtra, and Chhattisgarh.
60% said the BJP had committed electoral fraud in Delhi, while 65% alleged that the party is “buying votes with money power” in Bihar as well.
Over 58% believed the BJP “stole votes across the country” to remain in power.

The data reflects an unprecedented credibility crisis for the ruling party at both state and national levels.

Nitish Kumar’s Popularity at Record Low

Only 20% of participants credited Nitish Kumar’s administration with any improvement in governance.
A majority of respondents — especially rural workers, farmers, and youth — said that corruption, lawlessness, and unemployment have worsened during Nitish’s rule. Many described his leadership as “tired” and “irrelevant.”

Women Cite Safety and Crime as Major Concerns

Among women voters, 90% said they feel unsafe and are “disturbed by growing crimes and harassment.”
Several respondents complained that police action against sexual crimes remains weak and politically influenced. The survey suggests that women voters may overwhelmingly favor change this election.

Healthcare and Education in Deep Crisis

The survey paints a grim picture of Bihar’s healthcare and education sectors:

68% said public hospitals suffer from severe shortages of doctors, medicines, and facilities.
83% believe the education system and employment opportunities are in decline.
Only a small fraction (4–5%) reported visible improvement in these areas.

A respondent from Gaya district noted, “Government hospitals are empty, schools are broken, and youth are forced to migrate — nothing has changed in Bihar for years.”

Modi’s Image Tarnished Among Bihar Voters

Nationally, the Prime Minister’s standing has also taken a hit.
71% of respondents called Narendra Modi “the biggest liar in the world,” saying that his promises of development and jobs “exist only in speeches.”

Projected Vote Share: RJD Leads by a Landslide

According to the survey’s estimated vote projection:

RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal): 87%
JDU (Janata Dal United): 14%
BJP: 7%
Others (Congress, Left, AIMIM, etc.): marginal

If these trends hold, RJD is on course for a historic victory, while BJP and JDU could face one of their worst electoral setbacks in recent memory.

Bihar Assembly Election 2025 – Public Opinion Survey Report

Conducted by: Townhall Times

Survey Period: 15–30 September 2025

Total Sample Size: 20,000 respondents

Demographic Distribution:

Gender: 10,800 Male | 9,200 Female
Education Level: 6,000 illiterate/low educated | 8,500 graduates & above | 5,500 moderately educated
Region: 12,000 rural | 8,000 urban
Occupation: 7,000 laborers/farmers | 6,000 government employees | 4,000 students | 3,000 traders

Question 1: Has Chief Minister Nitish Kumar improved or worsened Bihar?

70% said: “Nitish Kumar has ruined Bihar.”
20% said: “Some improvement is visible.”
10% said: “Can’t say.”

Question 2: What is your opinion about the BJP?

68% said: “BJP has created a climate of fear and hooliganism.”
74% said: “BJP is the most deceptive party, which broke promises in Delhi, Maharashtra, and Chhattisgarh.”
60% said: “BJP committed the biggest electoral fraud in Delhi.”
65% said: “BJP is buying votes with money power in this election.”
58% alleged that “BJP manipulated votes nationwide to stay in power.”

Question 3: Public opinion on Prime Minister Narendra Modi

71% said: “Modi is the biggest liar in the world.”
19% said: “He has changed India’s image globally.”
10% said: “Partly right, partly wrong.”

Question 4: Do women feel safe in Bihar?

90% of women respondents said: “They are troubled by rising crimes and harassment.”
6% said: “Some improvement is visible.”
4% said: “Can’t say.”

Question 5: What is the status of education and employment in Bihar?

83% said: “There is an acute shortage of quality education and employment opportunities.”
12% said: “Slight improvement observed.”
5% said: “No opinion.”

Question 6: Has the healthcare system in Bihar improved?

68% said: “Healthcare facilities are poor – lack of doctors, medicines, and hospital infrastructure.”
19% said: “Some urban districts have improved, but rural areas remain neglected.”
9% said: “No significant change.”
4% said: “Yes, healthcare services have improved.”

Key remarks from respondents:

Government hospitals in rural areas face shortage of doctors and medicines.
People are increasingly dependent on expensive private hospitals.
Implementation of health schemes is very weak.
Many said, “Healthcare improvements exist only on paper, not on the ground.”

Projected Vote Share

Political Party	Estimated Vote Share	Trend
RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal)	87%	Massive lead
BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party)	7%	Sharp decline
JDU (Janata Dal United)	14%	Limited impact
Others (Congress, Left, AIMIM, etc.)	–8% (combined)	Marginal presence

Summary & Analysis

The survey indicates widespread public dissatisfaction with the current state government and the BJP-led alliance.

Women, youth, laborers, and farmers express anger over rising crimes, unemployment, and poor governance.
The education and healthcare systems remain in distress.
Nitish Kumar’s credibility is at an all-time low.
BJP’s national and state image has suffered due to broken promises, vote manipulation allegations, and misuse of money power.

RJD appears to be the most favored party, especially among rural, female, and lower-income voters, suggesting a potential landslide victory if trends continue.