Nitish Kumar’s Silent Strategy: A Counter to Modi–Shah, Tejashwi’s Government on the Horizon?

Townhall Times | Special Desk | Patna | October 23, 2025

The political temperature in Bihar is soaring ahead of the 2025 Assembly elections — but this time, the real storm seems to be brewing within the NDA itself. The BJP has deliberately avoided naming Nitish Kumar as its chief ministerial candidate, a move reminiscent of its Maharashtra strategy, where it outsmarted its ally after the polls. But Bihar is not Maharashtra — here stands Nitish Kumar, the wily political survivor who has outplayed the BJP’s Chanakya-style tactics more than once.

According to insiders, Nitish has a plan — and he’s keeping his cards close to the chest until the results are out. His silence, many believe, is a strategy to expose the BJP’s true intentions once the verdict is announced. Political watchers say, whatever the outcome, Nitish Kumar will not allow the BJP to control Bihar’s throne this time.

Cracks in the NDA Alliance

The NDA’s seat-sharing deal for 2025 looks balanced on paper: BJP and JD(U) will contest 101 seats each, Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) 29, and smaller allies 6 each. But the calm surface hides an undercurrent of mistrust.

Purnia MP Pappu Yadav recently revealed that the BJP and Chirag Paswan are plotting to isolate Nitish after the polls to keep their strike rate intact. “BJP and Chirag are planning to sideline Nitish. They won’t keep him in the NDA after the elections,” Yadav claimed. The situation mirrors the 2020 assembly polls, when Chirag played spoiler for Nitish, reducing JD(U)’s tally to just 43 seats.

Nitish, however, responded in typical fashion — by breaking away from the Grand Alliance and returning to the NDA. Now, with elections approaching, the cycle of betrayal and revenge appears ready to repeat itself.

Modi–Shah vs Nitish: The Battle of Chanakyas

The Modi–Shah duo may see themselves as modern Chanakyas, but Nitish Kumar has long mastered the art of political survival. A seven-term MP, four-time chief minister, and the architect of multiple alliances and breakups, Nitish is the ultimate pragmatist in Indian politics.

In 2015, he dumped the BJP to join hands with Lalu Prasad’s RJD; in 2022, he walked out of the NDA again; and in 2024, he rejoined it. Critics like Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge call him “opportunistic,” but Nitish knows one truth well — the BJP cannot win Bihar without him.

Inside the government, BJP’s dominance is clear — it controls 21 cabinet portfolios, while JD(U) has only 12. Deputy CM Vijay Kumar Sinha’s public remarks questioning Nitish’s CM candidature have deepened the cracks. JD(U) leaders have tried to play it down, but the rift is visible.

The Real Game Plan

Sources close to JD(U) say Nitish is waiting for the numbers. If his party performs well, he will make his move. “The Congress is ready to offer Nitish the respect that the BJP isn’t,” said Pappu Yadav.

Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan, led by Tejashwi Yadav, has finalized its seat-sharing deal. Tejashwi’s youth appeal, coupled with Nitish’s governance record — 1.5 lakh km of rural roads, universal electrification, and welfare schemes for women — could prove a lethal combination. The recent caste survey, a political masterstroke by Nitish, has also consolidated backward-caste support.

Bihar’s Political Chessboard

Prime Minister Modi’s upcoming Bihar tour, starting October 24, is clearly a high-stakes attempt to sway voters, but Nitish’s silence is equally powerful — a quiet resistance that keeps the BJP guessing.

As one analyst puts it, “Nitish Kumar is the Chanakya of Chanakyas. Modi and Shah may have mastered power politics, but Nitish has mastered survival.”

With voting scheduled between November 6 and 11 and results on the 14th, Bihar stands on the edge of another political twist. Whether Nitish flips again or redefines his legacy — one thing is certain: the final script of Bihar’s power game will be written by Nitish Kumar himself.